Thoughts for the Day, May 13, 2026: My Amazing Daughter
War in Iran
On February 19, 2026, nine days before Trump attacked Iran, a subscriber of this blog asked my thoughts on attacking Iran. Here is my response to the question.
“As far as Iran goes. As long as Iran stays within their boundaries I would leave them be and sanction the shit out of them. Iran is a lose-lose situation for us. Have we not learned from Iraq and Afghanistan?”
I normally don’t include articles that are as long as the following article by Robert Kagan, neoconservative member of the Brookings Institution, and opinion writer for The Atlantic. I am making an exception because it summarizes my fears about the War in Iran. It is worth your time to read. It is eye-opening, alarming, and not surprising.
It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. ….the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.
…The United States and Israel pounded Iran with devastating effectiveness for 37 days, killing much of the country’s leadership and destroying the bulk of its military, yet couldn’t collapse the regime or exact even the smallest concession from it. Now the Trump administration hopes that blockading Iran’s ports will accomplish what massive force could not. It’s possible, of course, but a regime that could not be brought to its knees by five weeks of unrelenting military attack is unlikely to buckle in response to economic pressure alone. Nor does it fear the anger of its populace. As the Iran scholar Suzanne Maloney noted recently, “A regime that slaughtered its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardships on them now.”
…Trump halted attacks on Iran not because he was bored but because Iran was striking the region’s vital oil and gas facilities. The turning point came on March 18, when Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest natural-gas-export plant, causing damage to production capacity that will take years to repair. Trump responded by declaring a moratorium on further strikes against Iran’s energy facilities and then declaring a cease-fire, despite Iran’s not having made a single concession.
…. Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iran’s “civilization” through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went down—assuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy, he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.
If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close.
In recent days, Trump has reportedly asked the U.S. intelligence community to assess the consequences of simply declaring victory and walking away…..It could fall tomorrow, or six months from now, or not at all. Trump doesn’t have that much time to wait, as oil climbs toward $150 or even $200 a barrel, inflation rises, and global food and other commodity shortages kick in. He needs a faster resolution.
…Those who glibly call on Trump to “finish the job” rarely acknowledge the costs. Unless the U.S. is prepared to engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold; unless it is prepared to risk the loss of warships convoying tankers through a contested strait; unless it is prepared to accept the devastating long-term damage to the region’s productive capacities likely to result from Iranian retaliation—walking away now could seem like the least bad option. As a political matter, Trump may well feel he has a better chance of riding out defeat than of surviving a much larger, longer, and more expensive war that could still end in failure.
Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.
Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The common assumption that, one way or another, the strait will reopen when the crisis ends is unfounded. Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante. …For one thing, how reliable is any deal with Trump?... The Iranians cannot be sure that Trump won’t decide to attack again within a few months of striking a deal. They also know that the Israelis may attack again…
…the regime in Tehran currently stands to emerge from the crisis much stronger than it was before the war, having not only retained its potential nuclear capacity but also gained control of an even more effective weapon: the ability to hold the global energy market hostage. When the Iranians talk of “reopening” the strait, they still mean to keep the strait under their control. Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.
The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties….In a world where Iran wields influence over the energy supply of so many nations, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else.
The new status quo in the strait will also occasion a substantial shift in relative power and influence both regionally and globally. In the region, the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran. As the Iran scholars Reuel Gerecht and Ray Takeyh wrote recently, “The Gulf Arab economies were built under the umbrella of American hegemony. Take that away—and the freedom of navigation that goes with it—and the Gulf states will ineluctably go begging to Tehran.”
They will not be the only ones. All nations that depend on energy from the Gulf will have to work out their own arrangements with Iran. What choice will they have?. China presumably has some influence over Tehran, but even China cannot force open the strait by itself.
The American defeat in the Gulf will have broader global ramifications as well. The whole world can see that just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight. ….at the very least America’s allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.
The global adjustment to a post-American world is accelerating. America’s once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties.
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This makes me chuckle
SCOTUS has handed President Trump an unprecedented number of favorable rulings since he was able to appoint three conservative justices in his first term. The favorable rulings are too many to count, yet Trump is still not happy. And when he is not happy, he turns on those who are making him unhappy, no matter their prior support of Trump.
Heather Cox Richardson summarizes Trump’s recent rants against SCOTUS. Trump complained twice that in its decision declaring his “Liberation Day” tariffs of April 2025 unconstitutional, the Supreme Court had not included a sentence saying, “Any money paid to the United States of America does not have to be paid back.” That sentence, he insisted, “would have saved America 159 billion Dollars!” He complained about his Supreme Court appointees Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett and suggested he should “PACK THE COURT! I’m working so hard to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and then people that I appointed have shown so little respect to our Country, and its people. What is the reason for this? They have to do the right thing, but it’s really OK for them to be loyal to the person that appointed them to ‘almost’ the highest position in the land, that is, a Justice of the United States Supreme Court.”
He warned them to vote his way on the question of birthright citizenship because “A negative ruling on Birthright Citizenship, on top of the recent Supreme Court Tariff catastrophe, is not Economically sustainable for the United States of America!”
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My amazing daughter
Katy is a wife, a mother of three beautiful children, a friend to many, and an Assistant Special Agent in Charge of Social Security Administration. She has completed three half-Iron Man Triathlons; she was a member of the NCAA Division II National Championship softball team. She gives, gives, and gives. She gets things done. She is impossible to keep up with.
Next week she is giving the gift of life. Katy is donating one of her kidneys to her cousin and my niece Kacy, who is need of a kidney transplant because of a chronic deteriorating kidney disease. The fact that Katy is a match to Kacy is nothing short of a miracle, since we adopted Katy when she was six weeks old.
Leah and I will be staying in Brighton starting on Tuesday until the end of May, helping Katy with her recovery and helping Brad with “ubering” our grandchildren, Alaina, Nolan and Kaylen to school and all their activities. It is the least we can do.
Please keep Katy and Kacy in your prayers.
This will be my last blog until Monday June 1.
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Contact your Congressperson
Contact your congressman by following these easy steps This can be done in a few easy steps.
Step 1: find your congressman by clicking on this link, Find Your Representative | house.gov
Step 2: Put your zip code in the proper space.
Step 3: Click the button “find your representative””
Step 4: In the new page that comes up you will see a picture of your congressman. Click on your congressman’s name under the picture.
Step 5: In the new page that comes up, Click on Contact Me at the top of the page and then click on Email me.
Step 6: Fill out the information as required.
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Quote of the Day: “As far as Iran goes. As long as Iran stays within their boundaries I would leave them be and sanction the shit out of them. Iran is a lose-lose situation for us. Have we not learned from Iraq and Afghanistan?” Yours truly.
Orchid of the Day: My daughter Katy Krieg.
Onion of the Day: President Trump for turning on SCOTUS, even though they have done more to enhance Trump’s power and protect him from criminal prosecution than any other part of the government.
Question of the Day: Is Robert Kagan’s assessment of the War in Iran correct?
Lyrics of the Day:
You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will live as one
Lyrics of the Day for May 11, 2026. We Gotta Get Out of This Place by Eric Burden
Video of the Day: One of my favorite music videos.