Thoughts for the Day, March 10, 2025: Its the economy, stupid.

It’s the economy stupid

Per most analysts, Trump won the swing votes because voters believed he was better at handling the economy than Harris. He promised to lower the cost of eggs on day one of his presidency. He promised to make the economy great again. Here are the facts.

The cost of Eggs per Trading Economics

· January 20, 2025: $6.34 per dozen

· March 7, 2025: $7.95 per dozen

· A $1.61 or 25.4% increase

S & P stock market since January 20, 2025

· Closing January 17, 2025 = 5,996

· Closing March 10, 2025 = 5,614

· A 382 or 6.4% decrease

And then there is this per Yahoo Finance.

Goldman Sachs is the latest Wall Street firm to grow more concerned about the path forward for the US economy as President Trump's tariff policies become reality.

In a research note on Monday, Goldman's economics team led by Jan Hatzius slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4%.

"The reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse," Hatzius wrote.

In its note, Goldman also boosted its projection for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge to end the year at 3%, up from a prior call in the mid 2% range. Hatzius noted these updates mark the first time in about two and a half years that his team has projected GDP growth below Bloomberg consensus data, which currently calls for GDP growth north of 2% this year.

Goldman is the latest in a slew of forecasting teams that now see a more dire outlook for the US economy.

In a note to clients on Friday, Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen moved his 2025 growth forecast down to 1.5% from 1.9% previously.

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Why the lies on Social Security?

In his speech on Tuesday, Trump continued to lie about fraud in the Social Security program. He continues to repeat allegations about the Social Security system that have been proven to be wrong. It is similar to his approach to the 2020 election where he lied about the outcome of the election. If he continues to say it enough, he knows his followers will believe him regardless of the facts.

I find it amazing that his speech writers allowed him to include his lies about social security in his speech to congress knowing that most of what he said was an outright lie. It makes me wonder what Trump is trying to gain by lying about social security fraud and abuse. I wonder if he is going to make this another loyalty test.

Per NBC news in his speech on Tuesday to congress, Trump said: “We’re also identifying shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud in the Social Security program for our seniors.”

Trump alleged in his speech that millions of senior citizens over age 100 — including some he maintained were older than 160 — were collecting Social Security checks, according to Social Security Administration data.

Trump specifically said that SSA records indicated that none of which are true

· 4.7 million people, 100 to 109 were getting checks, that

· 3.6 million 110 to 119 were, that

· 3.47 million 120 to 129 were, that

· 3.9 million 130 to 139 were, that

· 3.5 million 140 to 149 were, that

· 1.3 million 150 to 159 were — and that even

· 130,000 people older than 160 years old were still getting checks.

· Several hundred people older than 220 were still getting checks, according to SSA data — and that

· one person is listed at 360 of age.

Pete Buttigieg spoke out about Trump, posing this thought: “What he said about Social Security payments has been repeatedly debunked—so the question isn’t whether he’s lying about this, the question is why.” And we all know the answer: Trump is lying about fraud that does not exist, to justify making enormous cuts to Social Security.

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Speak up and speak out.

The following is a copy of the response I received from my congressman Jack Bergman regarding the switch in foreign policy related to Ukraine and Russia.

Dear Mr. Biggs:

Thank you for contacting me about the conflict in Ukraine. It is an honor to serve the people of Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts on this important matter.

First and foremost, my stance has always been guided by what I believe is in the best interest of the United States. My America First principle reflects my conviction that any foreign policy decision should come with clear objectives, transparent accountability for financial support, and a realistic strategy to achieve peace. I have consistently maintained that if our nation provides aid - particularly in a conflict as fraught as the one between Ukraine and Russia - there must be both a defined exit strategy and measurable outcomes to ensure American resources are used responsibly.

I want to emphasize that my remarks in no way diminish the courage shown by the Ukrainian people and military. I have personally met with Ukrainian servicemembers and have commended their bravery in defending their homeland. My concerns stem from the belief that the United States, as a strong ally, must encourage both sides to pursue a credible path to peace-one that prevents further loss of life, fosters long-term stability in Europe, and maintains an independent Ukraine.

Regarding President Zelenskyy, I share the same frustration many in the U.S. have: our support sometimes appears to be taken for granted. My goal is not to belittle Ukraine's struggle or to trivialize the sacrifices made. Rather, I contend that President Zelenskyy and other leaders must earnestly engage in peace negotiations and demonstrate transparency in how foreign aid is utilized. President Trump's call for immediate peace talks aims to reduce unnecessary bloodshed and move toward a resolution that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty without risking American lives.

My support for President Trump is rooted in the belief that a new approach to negotiations could offer a viable framework for ending this conflict. While we may not agree on every detail, please know that my primary concern is safeguarding American interests while preventing any further escalation of violence.

Again, thank you for reaching out to me with your thoughts. I am here to help in any way I can, so please do not hesitate to call if you ever need assistance. You can also visit my website at

http://bergman.house.gov

to learn more about the services my office is happy to provide.

Kind regards,

Jack Bergman
Member of Congress

I am still processing this response. I am not sure how to interpret it.

Please call your members of Congress today. The U.S. Capitol switchboard is 202-224-3121. Tell the operator where you’re from and the operator will connect you to your representatives and senators. I tested this out today. It is very simple. They will ask for the congress member you want to contact. They will then switch you to that office.

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A great send off to my brother-in-law Zane Berge

On Thursday, my daughter Katy, her two youngest Nolan and Kaylen, Leah and I took off for Columbia Maryland to attend my brother-in-law Zane Berge’s funeral. With Katy driving we arrived in plenty of time Thursday evening to help my sister with disposing of Zane’s unused dialysis supplies, which took five of us over two hours to complete.

On Friday the five of us went to Baltimore and walked around Camden Yard, the home of the Orioles, and picked up some souvenirs from the gift shop. We then had lunch on the harbor at Rusty Skuppers. My sister Nancy had dinner available for us Friday night as family and close friends stopped by to give Nancy support.

The funeral on Saturday was a beautiful send off. Katy was one of three people giving a eulogy for her Uncle Zane. Katy made me proud. There were beautiful versions of songs, “The Prayer” and an unbelievable solo of the Lords Prayer by a fellow faculty member of Zanes. It was a celebration of his life, and it was followed by a beautiful lunch in the church basement.

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And then all hell broke loose

Zane was to be buried in Pennsylvania on Sunday near the graves of his parents. As family and close friends gathered at my sister’s house for a continued celebration of Zane’s life following the funeral on Saturday all hell started to break out.

As the day was coming to an end, my sister Nancy was hit by a stomach virus or food poisoning and was suffering from all the usual side effects. By 2 AM I was thinking I was going to die when I got hit. Laying on the bathroom floor of a hotel for hours is not my version of fun. My brother Garry, his wife Angel, and daughter Willow were suffering the same fates. I have no idea how they managed while staying in a single hotel room.

I called my brother Larry and found out that his wife Geri was under attack. Nancy’s daughter Jenna was hit but she was able to make the trip to Pennsylvania for her dad’s burial, but her son Harley, got hit just as they were arriving at the burial site. My poor sister Nancy was so sick Sunday, she was not able to attend her husband’s burial, but she was able to watch it via facetime or something of that sort.

At 8:30 Sunday morning I told Katy and Leah that I was feeling good enough to handle the eight-hour drive home. At nine we took off. By 12:30 Kaylen was attacked. She lost her cookies at least five times. Fortunately, she didn’t have the other problem that some of us had. At one point we stopped at a rest area and Katy washed the inside of her car while Leah and I took care of the two kids. We asked some of the vendors at the rest area for plastic bags just in case. It was a good thing because Kaylen was not done.

After the eight-hour drive to Brighton, I decided that Leah and I were going to continue the 3 ½ hour drive to Petoskey. I had only slept in my bed for two nights since December 31 and I was bound and determined I was going to sleep in my own bed Sunday night. We made it home by 10 PM and by 11PM I was out like a light for the next 10 hours.

By 2PM on Monday, Katy was hit. As of this writing, 10 of my family members have been attacked.

This leads to my Quote of the Day. “We are making memories.” My daughter Katy as we were driving home yesterday.

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Orchid of the Day: My sister Nancy for putting together a great send-off for her husband Zane.

Onion of the Day: Whatever it was that attacked us following the funeral on Saturday.

Lyrics of the Day: What'll you do when you get lonely And nobody's waiting by your side?
You've been running and hiding much too long You know it's just your foolish pride.

If you think you know the answer, send me your answer in the comments section of the blog.

Answer to Lyrics of the Day for March 4, 2025: A Day in the Life, by the Beatles

“Question of the Day: How do you interpret Congressman Bergman’s response to my inquiry?

Video of the Day: Jesus is Just Alright-The Doobie Brothers

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